A Must REad :Dire Predictions For The Job Market In 2020. Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Technology will Slowly and Steadily Displace Millions of Workers.
Just because you turn the page on the calendar, it doesn’t mean that things will be radically different. History shows that most major events unfold slowly and then happen all of a sudden.
Avoid jobs that could easily be taught to someone else who the company could pay a lower salary to or easily relocated to another country.
The start of 2020 will continue the current trends that we are witnessing right now. This includes the slow and steady ascension of sophisticated technology, global connectivity, an aging population in the workforce and a confluence of other factors that will enhance existing trends and bring about big, new changes.
Artificial intelligence, robotics and technology will slowly and steadily displace millions of workers. It will happen industry by industry and you won’t even know what’s happening until it comes for your job. The so-called professionals promise that AI and related technology would only replace repetitive tasks for workers on the lower end of the job market and free people up for more meaningful work.
To remain relevant and employed, you need specialized skills that are not easy to learn or replicate.
What we are actually seeing is that AI is being aggressively deployed by investment banks, law and accounting firms, hospitals and major corporations to displace white-collar professionals. This is just the beginning stages of this dire trend. If your job can be replaced by AI, it will. You will then be forced into scrambling for a new career.
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People at all ends of the social and economic spectrum will be impacted. Doctors won’t be spared, as cutting-edge robotics will do some jobs more precise than they can. An older doctor with shaky hands and less-than-perfect eyesight will easily be replaced by a robot who doesn’t take off Wednesday to golf. Robots using AI can scan x-rays better than the naked human eye to detect issues, such as hard-to-find cancer cells.
Blue-collar factory workers, truck and cab drivers, fast-food cashiers and retail sales associates will be replaced by robotics and technology. Autonomous vehicles, kiosks in fast-food restaurants and self-help scans at stores will decimate minimum-wage and low-skilled jobs.
To succeed in the near future, it would be helpful to have a background in science, technology, engineering, mathematics and coding.
People live much longer than they used to, due to advancements in medicine and an increased focus on nutrition, exercise and diets. This trend will benefit those who tend to senior citizens and the elderly in a variety of capacities. Financial advisors, hospice workers, assisted living home personnel, physical therapists and people who are involved with surgical enhancements will thrive.
As people live well into their 90s and longer, they will delay retirement and work into their late 70s to ensure that they have sufficient funds to support themselves. Many older people will work just to have healthcare benefits. When Social Security was first enacted, the average lifespan in the U.S. was roughly in the mid 60s. A person would retire, collect a small pension and supplement it with Social Security. Today, very few—if any—corporations offer pension plans. It will be a burden on the younger generation to support the Social Security and healthcare benefits for the aging population.
The challenge in 2020 is that after 10 years of uninterrupted growth, history dictates that there is always a regression to the mean.
This will put stress on younger people to pay for the older population through higher taxes. They’ll also have to foot the bill for the Baby Boomers and older generations, as it relates to higher insurance costs. Since the older generation won’t leave the workforce voluntarily (especially since they need the benefits), there will be less chances for the younger employees to advance up the corporate ladder, as all of the good seats will already be taken. Also, there is a growing movement to discriminate against workers 40 years and older, who are earning a decent salary. They are—and will continue to be—replaced by younger, less-expensive people in the U.S. and other countries.
The trend has been for companies to relocate jobs to the cheapest locations. It starts with moving from a costly city, like New York, to a lower-cost state. Then, the jobs go to other countries, such as India, and will be ultimately moved around to where the corporations could find the cheapest labor that can’t yet be done by computers. The migration will keep shuffling people to the lowest-cost places around the world.
As the gig economy becomes mainstream, corporations will realize that there is little need to maintain expensive corporate offices, pay benefits and bear the burden of full-time permanent employees. Instead, companies can offer project work for people when they are needed. These contractors can work from home, won’t receive benefits and will save money for the corporations.
It will become tougher to get raises and promotions if you hold a job that is easily replaceable. When a job can be moved from New York City to lower-cost cities in the U.S. and other countries, there is little incentive for companies to pay you a higher salary. It’s more cost-effective for them to relocate your job and show you the door. Due to globalization, jobs will be moved around the world like chess pieces. If you are a pawn in this game, you’re in trouble.
To remain relevant and employed, you need specialized skills that are not easy to learn or replicate.
As we pollute the earth, there will be a great need for people with the skills to clean up the environment. There will be a growing need for skilled scientists and engineers to design ways to colonize other planets and build the means to get there and construct a habitable community.
We’re experiencing an unprecedented 10-year run where the job market has kept getting stronger. We are currently at full employment. This is an economic term where 5% unemployment is considered full employment, as statistically there will always be a certain amount of people in between jobs. This is not due to a systemic problem, but rather based on individual circumstances. Since the unemployment rate is only at about 3.6%, it’s an historically great time for job seekers.
The challenge in 2020 is that after 10 years of uninterrupted growth, history dictates that there is always a regression to the mean. Growth doesn’t—and can’t always—go up forever without corrections (when the stock market drops 5% to 10%) along the way. There are usually corrections that bring back the economy and job market to lower levels. Usually the causes are not known at the time and come from left field. It seems reasonable that we are long overdue for one. When this happens, companies will layoff thousands of workers to cut costs and stay competitive. Many companies will try to get ahead of the curve and preemptively downsize workers. James Gorman, the CEO of top-tier investment bank Morgan Stanley, announced that he was letting go of about 1,500 employees due to concerns about the future of the economy.
If a Democrat, such as Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, wins the presidential election in 2020, the country will tilt toward socialism. Taxes will significantly increase to pay for the newly enacted entitlement programs, such as free healthcare, wiping out student debt (which is primarily backed by the U.S.), universal basic income (which offers people thousands of dollars of month without having to work) and numerous other benefits offered.
Companies will need to cut costs to pay the extra taxes and layoff people since they will not be as profitable. The government will become an even larger employer, as it will need millions of people to work in these new bureaucratic agencies to administer the new initiatives.
If Donald Trump wins, it will be hard for him to keep up the economic and job growth. There will be a reversion to the mean, as corrections are inevitable.
To succeed in the near future, it would be helpful to have a background in science, technology, engineering, mathematics and coding. If you don’t have these skills, try to find a job or profession that is hard to be replaced by technology. Avoid jobs that could easily be taught to someone else who the company could pay a lower salary to or easily relocated to another country.
Forbes.com | December 16, 2019 | Jack Kelly
